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New Yorkers will find out who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and protects the nation's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has led his rival by significant margins in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an election that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to Trump's power moves, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with Americans' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York rejection of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has encountered some challenges in recent days, after video emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd