🔗 Share this article

Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It commonly acts as a kind of apology. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the largest resurgence is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or simply the greatest surprise.

Yet the current field is fundamentally different. The list of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division champions declining and recent also-rans ascending together. During an normal season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a turbulent and fun season, he's facing multiple other outstanding coaches.

This is how the ideal vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right system, Williams has been given the chance to display his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to conjure magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary season, he would be the runaway choice. But the current is not a typical year!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given after his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still